Energy Crisis in Europe and Asia Lifts October 2021 ICP to US$81.80 per Barrel

---

MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES

REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA

PRESS RELEASE

NUMBER: 402.Pers/04/SJI/2021

Date: 12 November 2021

Energy Crisis in Europe and Asia Lifts October 2021 ICP to US$81.80 per Barrel

The average price of Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) in October 2021 lifted to US$81.80 per barrel, rising by US$9.60 per barrel from the previous month ICP of US$72.20 per barrel.

The October ICP is set out in Decision of Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Number 217.K/HK.02/MEM.M/2021 of 8 November 2021.

The ICP for Sumatran Light Crude (SLC) also rose, from US$72.25 per barrel to US$81.52 per barrel, or a US$9.27 rise per barrel.

In its executive summary (exsum), the Indonesia Oil Price Team reported an increase in the average price of main crudes in the international market in October 2021 compared to September 2021. There are a number of factors contributing to the increase, for example, gas supply crisis and a higher price of coal that have led to power crisis in Europe and Asia as well as an estimated colder winter that has boosted demands for crude as a substitute.

Another factor includes OPEC+ deal not to add production and will instead stick to a production increase plan of 400,000 BOPD per month despite stronger demands for crude. In its October 2021 report, OPEC projected that global crude demands in Q4 2021 would rise by 0.12 million BOPD to 99.82 million BOPD compared to projection of the previous month. Additionally, production by non-OPEC was projected to drop in Q4 2021 by 3.2 million BOPD to 65.24 million BOPD compared to projection of the previous month.

"The US crude stock at Cushing, Oklahoma, the point of transfer of WTI (Nymex), has dropped by 3.9 million barrels to 27.33 million barrels, a 47% drop compared to the average crude stock in the last five years," continued the exsum.

According to a report by Energy Information Administration (EIA), gasoline and distillate stock in the United States has lowered compared to the end of the previous month. Gasoline stock was down by 6.1 million barrels to 215.7 million barrels, while distillate stock decreased by 4.7 million barrels to 125.0 million barrels.

Stronger crude prices were also associated with economic recovery and industry growth that have boosted demands for energy, especially crude.

For the Asia Pacific, higher crude prices are attributable to an early winter in China, which has skyrocketed demands for coal, gas, and crude faster than estimated.

Another contributing factor is increasing imports in Asia, with crude imports in October 2021 are as follows:

a. India's imports grew by 310,000 barrels to 4.19 million BOPD compared to September 2021 as the economy was improving after the Covid-19 pandemic.

b. Japan was estimated to have imported 3.01 million BOPD, the highest amount this year, as a backup for winter.

c. South Korea was estimated to have imported 2.99 million BOPD, also as a backup for winter and because the economy was improving after the Covid-19 pandemic.

The complete developments in global oil prices in October are as follows:

-Dated Brent rises by US$9.08 per barrel, from US$74.58 per barrel to US$83.66 per barrel.

-WTI (Nymex) is up by US$9.68 per barrel, from US$71.54 per barrel to US$81.22 per barrel.

-Basket OPEC lifts by US$8.19 per barrel, from US$73.88 per barrel to US$82.07 per barrel.

-Brent (ICE) increases by US$8.87 per barrel, from US$74.88 per barrel to US$83.75 per barrel. (IY)

Head of Bureau of Communication, Public Information Services, and Cooperation

Agung Pribadi (08112213555)